According to blogger Confessions of a Political Animal, the impact of replacing Britain’s current First Past the Post system would be dependent on the share of vote held by the Lib Dems.
Gordon Brown has been discussing the possibility of moving to an Alternative Vote system recently, and MPs are due to vote on whether there should be a referendum to decide it next week. This is what Political Animal had to say:
“The effect of AV on this seat would be heavily dependent on how the Lib Dem’s 14% vote share splits on redistribution, with a small margin in the Conservatives’ favour being enough to overhaul Labour, especially with a UKIP share of around 2% already swinging in their favour.
“However, the mixed demographics and electoral history of this area suggest that preferences might be pretty evenly split: Livingstone had just a 0.4% lead on second preferences here.”
The Conservatives have already announced their opposition to the plan, and what will happen is anyone’s guess. But Tony McNulty seems to be fairly positive about the idea:
“The notion that British people should at least have a referendum on whether they think Alternative Vote (AV) is better than First Past the Post [FPTP] is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
“What’s good about AV is that it maintains absolutely the constituency link.
“I don’t agree with this populist notion from David Cameron that he should make ten per cent less MPs. It sounds great, but it means the average seat is going up to 110 or 120 thousand and it starts to dilute that personal link between the MP and the electorate.”
See the full interview with Mr McNulty here. In the mean time, do you think electoral reform would be a good thing? And what would it mean for Harrow?